Best-selling American author John Naisbitt is full of confidence in China's future and believes that the nation will one day lead the world in Nobel Prizes, just as it did in Olympic gold medals at Beijing last year.

Regarded as the world's leading futurist, Naisbitt shed light on his upcoming book Megatrends China during a recent visit to Beijing.

He gained an extensive following in China back in the 1980s with Megatrends, which sold 14 million copies around the world and topped the New York Times best-seller list for the best part of two years. Back then, I was a postgraduate student at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and read his book word by word. Although I didn't fully understand it, I found it very encouraging for China in the early years of its opening-up and reform.

When I finally met Naisbitt and his wife Doris in Beijing, I found the 80-year-old with the trademark white beard still hale and hearty. We had a friendly chat that was free of age or cultural differences. The old man's eyes sparkled with wisdom, earnestness and a childish smile.

He recalled that when he had met then-Chinese President Jiang Zemin some years ago, Naisbitt had felt Taiwan was a small place with few stories that were told well, while the Chinese mainland was a huge place with many stories not told well. Jiang asked him why he didn't tell those stories himself and Naisbitt had replied he wasn't ready. After three years' research, Naisbitt is about to finally publish that book.

He took out a pile of A4 paper and read out the contents of the book to me. There are eight chapters that Naisbitt calls the major columns of China's new society. After discussing the liberation of people's thoughts in China, Naisbitt goes on to analyze the rise of its economy, society, culture, international relations and its efforts to establish a sustainable way of development.

Naisbitt has paid great attention to this country ever since his first trip here in 1967. More than 40 years' observation and studies have left him very upbeat about its prospects. Two decades ago, he had called China a country at dawn. In the 21st century, he points out that the dawn is turning into day and China is rising at an amazing speed.

He sums up the development of China and the West from several aspects. While Western countries are standing still, for instance, China is realizing new goals; in many areas, Western countries are confining people's thoughts, while China is liberating thoughts; the West is increasing indirect control, but China is decreasing economic control and supervision.

Western countries want to tell others that they solve problems, but China is pursuing more opportunities. Problem solvers focus on the past, opportunity seekers eye the future.

Crucially, Naisbitt says that the West is little prepared for the fact it is on a downhill path while China is rising. Fear and jealousy lead Western countries to often attack China and try to keep it out of their inner circle.

The book ends with these words: Today, China has gained the most Olympic golds; tomorrow, it might become the biggest winner of Nobel Prizes.

I believe his analysis is spot on and that the future will unfold just as Naisbitt predicts.

The author is director of China Book International Promotion and Planning Office.